How many new Dem Senators or House Members will publicly call for Biden to drop out on July 10th and 11th?
resolved Jul 12
2 or more
4 or more
6 or more
8 or more
10 or more
16 or more
12 or more
14 or more

This market counts sitting members of the House or Senate who caucus with the Democratic Party. They must directly and publicly call for Biden to suspend his re-election campaign to resolve an option in this market.

Simply saying that they think the president cannot win the election or saying that he should think hard about if he is the best person to beat Trump is not sufficient, they must be explicitly in favor of replacing him as the nominee.

In cases of ambiguity, resolution will be based on the Votehub tracker, the New York Times Tracker, and CNN's Haley Talbot.

As of 5:35 on 7/11, the count is 9 new people so far over these 48 hours.

More options will be added if necessary, and all options resolve NO if that many new qualifying individuals have not called for Biden to step aside before market close at the end of Thursday, July 11th in Pacific Time.

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Sequel market! This time to keep it simple we'll go with the NYT as the primary resolution source, and we'll count the total number.

filled a Ṁ500 16 or more YES at 87% order

In case it isn't clear, this market is about new Democrats calling for Biden to drop out. So basically take those numbers and subtract 7.

opened a Ṁ88 16 or more NO at 82% order

(11 since beginning of yesterday)

sold Ṁ251 12 or more YES

Not that clear. My fault for not reading carefully enough.

Definitely 10 now, and probably 11.

EDIT: Definitely 11.

"Today, I am hopeful President Biden will step aside in his campaign" is strong enough.

Yup, I count 11.

@EricZhu I was just being hesitant to definitely count Scott Peters until he got added to NYT.

bought Ṁ22 16 or more NO
sold Ṁ37 14 or more NO

Is this a public statement? Seems like he’s written it, but the language of “obtained” seems like he might not have actually released it to the public, and it was instead leaked? Definitely not a hill I’m gonna die on, but I’ll keep my 25 NO mana

Forbes confirms. I don't see anything in NYT yet, but it seems official.

sold Ṁ9 10 or more NO

All three of the resolution sources linked in description say Scott Peters has called Biden to drop out

bought Ṁ150 16 or more NO

@JamieCrom Wondering why you think there’ll be 7 more in the next 6 hours and 12 minutes?

@JoshuaB because members of congress were instructed to wait until after the presser to release their stuff

I’d have expected if they were waiting to do it, they’d either release right after, like Himes, or wait till tomorrow

that’s what im thinkin

bought Ṁ50 14 or more YES


Yup that looks like 9.


Already counted!

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