Will Manifold launch a crypto token before April?
78
23
resolved Apr 1
Resolved
NO
Resolves true if Manifold Markets (or some affiliated company or organization) releases a crypto token on mainnet by April 1, 2022. #ManifoldMarkets #crypto
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bought Ṁ300 of NO
If a crypto token were created, I'd launch it on something like Solana rather than ETH mainnet. Lower transaction fees and faster confirmations mean that it might actually be viable in that case.
bought Ṁ1 of NO
I did a crypto version of MM as a hobby project. My feeling is you lose a lot because of the waiting period for confirmations vs. the immediacy of a central solution. If real money or real money proxies are at stake people will rug pull. I like the worthless token but karmic worth of $M on this platform. Once it is an ERC 20 token it will probably float somewhere and be convertible both ways for real dollars. So I cannot see a crypto move unless I am missing something. But that doesn’t mean a token wont be produced to see where it goes. So I find this market hard to call.
bought Ṁ92 of NO
more as it will go "yes" then it is basically useless to me anyway
bought Ṁ20 of NO
please, no I do not want to participate in scam/heavily scam associated mess It may be worth in something that is actually decentralized, but in centralized project adding cryptocurrencies is basically a scam.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Careful: it is easy to mint an ERC20 token, and do nothing else, and get a “technically correct” yes.
bought Ṁ20 of NO
I'm with Em here, please don't. If I wanted to gamble with "real" money, I'd use polymarket. I think this would negatively impact manifold markets reputation, even if it could possibly make a lot of money in the short term. In addition you could achieve the same with a regular database and without blockchain. Manifold Markets is already centralized.
bought Ṁ15 of NO
Ogawd please don't. We do not need any more pointlessly blockchained things.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Is this a movable market? Can work be volunteered?
bought Ṁ48 of NO
It always takes longer than you want.... Prove me wrong!
bought Ṁ5 of YES
I originally bought No but hedging a bit here due to Austin’s comment here (https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-passage-of-polymarket) indicating it’s core to MF’s 3-month roadmap (doesn’t mean they’ll be able to execute on it but still a positive indicator).

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