Will Argentina beat Australia?
34
30
1.1K
resolved Dec 3
Resolved
YES

YES = Argentina
NO = Australia

See details and google's win probability here

Trading halts on this market at half-time to allow some live trading, but ensure the tournament profits aren't too heavily weighed by reaction time and constant use of the site.

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bought Ṁ45 of YES

The question isn't very specific is it in the first 90 minutes? Will penalty shootouts count?

predicted YES

@Simon805b And, it's closed...

@Simon805b I'm confused what would you want further clarification on?

In a world cup knockout stage football match, one team wins and advances and one team loses. This can be by a team winning in the first 90 minutes, by winning in 120 minutes, or by winning on penalty shootouts.

predicted YES

@DavidChee I'm asking because in actual bets, the bet is for the 90 minutes if they draw you lost your bet. Maybe it was the case here too

@Simon805b Ah, I didn't realise that on traditional betting sites you only bet on the first 90 minutes instead of who wins and advances.

Weird they would do it like that, I'll add a lil bit of clarification on the other markets, thanks for letting me know!

predicted YES

@DavidChee technically penalty shootouts (but not matches won in extra time) are counted as draws, but I understood "beat" as in "eliminate from the World Cup" so everyone included

predicted YES

@egroj everything*

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I had done markets for all of these ones before, they close at the end of the match though, for example:

@egroj yeah sorry for the duplication.

For our tournaments we want the main markets to be made by the main Manifold account so we have full control over them.

Also with previous tournaments there was confusion from new/casual users on why all the markets were created by different users and not from one main source.

predicted YES

@DavidChee makes sense, most markets are already above 5 traders, so I'm not losing money. And also it is still exciting to bet until the end of the match, so mine will cover that.

bought Ṁ25 of YES

FWIW I like that policy. I've, like everyone else, traded until full time, which doesn't reward predictive ability and deprives markets of their predictive value.

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