#Omicron has a 100% or bigger transmission advantage in practice versus Delta
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120Ṁ1150resolved Jan 1
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YES1D
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#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7
It’s pretty hard to look at the UK data and draw any other conclusion. I hold out the possibility that this is an early-stage thing enough that it might not break 100% exactly, but this doesn’t seem like an interesting question anymore, since at most we are ‘talking price’ and the better question is our best guess as to exactly how big an advantage. I’ll think about what the best replacement is.
Dec 20, 5:37pm: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/20/omicron-post-8
The various ways in which Omicron looks potentially to have been halted imply the potential for a much reduced generation time (aka serial interval) for Omicron, which would allow what we’ve witnessed without the need for a super large transmission advantage. Thus, it seems somewhat more plausible we won’t fully hit 100% after the initial wave.
#Covid
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I'm going to resolve yes