#Omicron is importantly less virulent than Delta
36
22
Ṁ4.8Kresolved Jan 12
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7
The data from Denmark and South Africa point in opposite directions here. Saying ‘oh well they cancel out’ is the coward’s way out for sure, but until I have more time to process that’s where I am at. I’ll probably update at some point soon off no new information when I decide what it all means.
Dec 20, 5:37pm: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/20/omicron-post-8
I do think that the evidence this past few days was modestly in favor of similar virulence to Delta, but I did not find it conclusive or especially strong.
#Covid
Jan 12, 4:04pm: We are going to resolve this early to YES. We think Zvi means 'less severe' when he writes 'less virulent' and there is substantial evidence for that.
Zvi: "Time keeps passing and we keep seeing the same patterns, I think we can safely say that it’s importantly less virulent." https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2022/01/07/omicron-post-13-outlook/
However, this question could be phrased in a clearer way, and we don't want to confuse our users. Note that this is one of the first markets we created back when this site was only a prototype.
Get Ṁ200 play money
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ203 | |
2 | Ṁ161 | |
3 | Ṁ149 | |
4 | Ṁ130 | |
5 | Ṁ98 |
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be fewer death due to infectious diseases in 2024 compared to 2023? (in the United States)
42% chance
Will there be fewer death due to infectious diseases in 2024 compared to 2023? (Wordwide)
55% chance
Will the next pandemic be overall worse than covid-19 in absolute, global terms?
53% chance
[Metaculus] At least two public health agencies claim China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections before 2025
50% chance
Will the next pandemic be worse than COVID?
[Metaculus] Will a new VOC-classified covid variant cause at least 20k daily hospitalizations in US before July 1, 2025?
6% chance
Will another outbreak on par with covid-19 happen within the decade.
44% chance