If we guess “VOCAL” in round 4, will we finish this Wordle in 4 rounds?

Question

Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy

Rules of the game:
1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round
2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word
3. Traders have 1 hour to place their bets
4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A
5. If the Wordle is not finished, return to step 1
6. If the Wordle is finished, resolve each of the selected markets

Note: We play on https://hellowordl.net/ so there isn’t any insider trading by people who have already done today’s Wordle. Candidate words are chosen from all possible words that satisfy Wordle's "Hard Mode" constraints.

Inspired by Twitch Plays Pokemon (and Wordle, ofc)

Round 1 candidates: STAGE, BONER, IGLOO
Result: STAGE ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜
Round 2 candidates: HARPY, ADORN, VALOR
Result: ADORN 🟨⬜🟨⬜⬜
Round 3 candidates: MACHO, POLKA, VOILA
Result: MACHO ⬜🟨🟩⬜🟨
Round 4 candidates: COCOA, VOCAL, LOCAL

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Feb 12, 2022 by Manifold Markets prediction market.

#	Trader	Total profit
1		Ṁ12
2		Ṁ4

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