Science

Life Extension

Free Money

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9999/annexation-of-transnistria/

Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

Wars

World

Russia

Metaculus

Ukraine-Russia war

Resolves yes if the People's Republic of China attempts to physically invade Taiwan, regardless of whether they succeed

#China #War #Taiwan

Marshall's group for testing

Who does Xi think he is?

Global Macro

Pelosi Taiwan visit

Pacific Rim 

Taiwan 

China

Politics

Asia

https://twitter.com/razibkhan/status/1523437768172470272?t=fNdWH6DqRKTB7JXacazjOQ&s=19

Salem/CPSI forecasting tournament

Predictions on Predictions

Manifold

This resolves YES if I achieve the following by 9:00 PM CDT tomorrow.
1. Track all of my activities throughout the day on Toggl.
2. Spend at least 180 minutes on things that I strongly endorse (not including exercise). This is subjective and my definitions are inconsistent, but these tasks are usually either cognitively or emotionally challenging. I include planning for those tasks if it's done in an effective way (usually ~5 minutes). Sometimes I make exceptions for the "challenging" part and do easy tasks that are really important; this depends on whether I think I'd benefit from having the incentive of knowing that I'm counting it as "highly productive" time.
3. Spend at most 60 minutes on things that I strongly disapprove of, i.e. distractions. This most often involves surfing the Internet or social media or something like that. Checking social media or doing other traditionally distracting things is fine iff I do it consciously (i.e. plan what I'm doing beforehand instead of just mindlessly surfing).
4. Check in here with the # of minutes I've spent productively and unproductively at least once every 3.5 hours between the period from 10:30 AM CDT to 9:00 PM CDT, where check-in #1 should be done by 10:45 AM CDT.

I don't think I've hit any of these 3 for the past week (haven't checked in depth though). The ~week before that, I think I hit #1 70% of the time, #2 50% of the the time, #3 0% of the time.

May 7, 10:08am: Check-in 1:
Highly productive: 0 min
Highly unproductive: 0 min
just woke up

May 7, 1:04pm: Check-in 2:
Highly productive: 23 min
Highly unproductive: 15 min

May 7, 3:51pm: Check-in 3
Highly productive: 89 min
Highly unproductive: 18 min

May 7, 7:04pm: Check-in 4
Highly productive: 89 min
Highly unproductive: 28 min

Close date updated to 2022-05-07 9:00 pm

May 7, 7:04pm: Updated close time. Won't check in until 9:00 PM though.

May 7, 9:09pm: Check-in 5
As of 9:00 PM CDT:
Highly productive: 188 min
Highly unproductive: 32 min

This resolves YES because 188 >= 180 and 32 <= 60

Manifold User Retention

"Actively using" will be resolved subjectively, by whether I still feel like a regular user of the site. If in December I've taken a short break but plan to return, that will still count as me being an active user.

I will commit to resolve this market even if I have otherwise stopped using Manifold by then. (I have an external reminder set for the end of the year.)

Technology

Internet

Musk Mania

Twitter

Elon musk

The law's contents may change. It just must be called the Build Back Better Act, be passed using budget reconciliation, and be signed into law by POTUS anytime on or before March 1st, 2022.

Showcase

US Politics

PredictIt

Meta-Forecasting

Market resolves to YES in the event that a nuclear weapon is confirmed to be launched for combat, non-testing purposes before Jan 1, 2023, anywhere in the world.

Nuclear Risk

Resolves true if Manifold Markets (or some affiliated company or organization) releases a crypto token on mainnet by April 1, 2022.
#ManifoldMarkets #crypto

This resolves "YES" if any of the NYTimes front pages from Dec 1-8 in 2022 has an article about COVID. The article has to be primarily COVID/pandemic related, or directly reference the pandemic in the headline or first paragraph. Source: https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper

Close date updated to 2022-11-01 11:59 pm

Medicine 

Please Resolve

This market resolves to "YES" if by the end of 2022 there have been 10 or more earthquakes of at least 7.0 magnitude (according to the Moment Magnitude Scale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moment_magnitude_scale). Resolves to "NO" otherwise.

From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022

Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.

Law & Order

SCOTUS

Brazil

Elections: World

Rai's personal

Economics

New Year's Resolutions 2024

This question resolves to Yes if we ever get the M$500 from filling out the survey. It resolves to No if we never do.

US 2022 Midterms

US 2022 Elections

Sorry, for the remake, I wrote it poorly yesterday.

LGBTQIA+

Donald Trump

Demurrage, or negative interest rates on cash balances, is an experimental idea in economics associated with thinkers like Silvio Gesell that aims to encourage productive spending and discourage hoarding. 

In Manifold Markets' current play-money system, a small daily fee on users' uninvested cash balances (equivalent to an annualized 10-30% fee) could encourage users to bet in more markets, prevent inflation from new money generated by new users, and make it more rational to participate in longer-term markets.

Resolves YES if Manifold implements negative interest rates on cash balances before the end of January and does not remove the feature before February 10, 2022.

You can influence this market by posting a comment with your bet! #ManifoldMarkets #economics

2022 FIFA World Cup

Sports

Soccer

This question resolves to YES if the Democrats pass a bill prior to the November 8th midterm elections that commits, at minimum, $500 billion in towards climate and social spending (excludes deficit reduction), over a 10 year budget window.

US Legislature

What percentage of the top 10 private companies by valuation on https://www.cbinsights.com/research-unicorn-companies will file to go public (e.g. file S-1, file for a SPAC merger, etc.) by the end of 2022? This market resolves PROB to this percentage.

The list as of today is:
Bytedance
SpaceX
SHEIN
Stripe
Klarna
Canva
Checkout.com
Instacart
Databricks
Revolut

If a company files to go public but later announces a change of plans, it still counts for this question.

May 6, 11:06am: To clarify, I meant which of the specified list (today's top 10 largest startups) will file to go public? The question is about these 10 startups regardless of whether the set of largest startups changes.

Startups

Run shirtless in Colorado. No sunscreen on the body for our 30 minute swim.

The twitter poll will be "in total, have you given or received more oral sex?" the answers will be given, received, and "never had oral sex". Will the winning vote be that people received more oral sex?

Jun 8, 3:35pm: this is the most stressful manifold market ive ever done

Aella's Twitter Polls

Manibadges

ChatGPT 

💙 Manifold

This market resolves to YES if in my judgement, a market's existence, question, description, trades, comments, tags, probability, resolution, the identities of those participating in the market, information revealed in any of the above, etc, leads to social drama sometime this year. Discourse that does not pertain to anyone's personal lives does not count as social drama. I mostly hang out on Discord but do also occasionally hear about stuff that happens on Facebook, Twitter, tumblr, and in real life.

This market resolves to the dollar amount of Manifold Market's total Firebase spending in February; each % corresponds to $3 of Firebase spend.
See https://manifold.markets/analytics to see our daily traffic patterns.
Firebase spending as of Feb 13 is $167: https://i.imgur.com/GZEopOo.png

Mar 2, 10:05am: Final spending in Feb: $791.

Manifold Plays Wordle: An Experiment in Futarchy

Rules of the game:
1. Manifold generates 3 random words for a Wordle round
2. Manifold sets up a conditional market for each word
3. Traders have 2 hours to place their bets
4. The highest % word is chosen for the round; other markets resolve to N/A
5. If the Wordle is not finished, return to step 1
6. If the Wordle is finished, resolve each of the selected markets

Note: We play on https://hellowordl.net/ so there isn’t any insider trading by people who have already done today’s Wordle. Candidate words are chosen randomly from all words that satisfy Wordle's "Hard Mode" constraints.

Feel free to make derivative markets, tagged with #ManifoldPlaysWordle !

Inspired by Twitch Plays Pokemon (and Wordle, ofc)

Manifold Features

I tested for ~300 sexual fetishes (though many of them were questions that only appeared conditional on previous questions). I also asked about gender (including trans/cis) and height. 
The question is, will height in biological males correlate with interest in any sexual fetish? 
(Not adjusting for any confounders, but I do plan on throwing out things that seem underpowered/sus for any reason, such as realizing people were severely misinterpreting a question answer)

Sample size in this dataset so far is around 11,000 (most of them male)

Will resolve this market when I finally get all the data cleaned up to look at it, giving myself a month time limit (though likely much sooner)

Resolves YES iff Manifold receives any amount of non-profit funding from FTX FF for charity prediction markets, or a clear expression of intent to send funding, by the closing of this market.

Our application is here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mbBfFHKEDBTwTSSJX/predicting-for-good-charity-prediction-markets

Reasons they might fund this:
- It's a really good idea!
- Eventually, charity prediction markets could account for significant chunks of FTX FF's spending.

Reasons they might not fund this:
- They've already invested in our for-profit side
- The idea is kind of new and weird
- There isn't enough demand for this in the real world
- FTX FF wants to do more direct funding than regranting

Manifold's calibration