Manifold's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.6
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Manifold bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
- Will Manifold allow market creators to pay Mana to "feature" their own markets to attract more traders by end of 2023?YESṀ100
- Will Manifold allow market creators to pay Mana to "feature" their own markets to attract more traders by end of 2023?YESṀ100
- Will a psychedelic drug be decriminalized/legalized in at least one more US state in 2022?YESṀ75
80%
90%
95%