Maggie Delano's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.45
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Maggie Delano bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will the Supreme Court overrule Grutter v. Bollinger and hold that institutions of higher education cannot use race as a factor in admissions?YESṀ100
- Will 'Barbie' gross more domestically than any other movie released in 2023?YESṀ100
- Will Trump be indicted for crimes related to January 6 by the end of July?NOṀ100
95%
- Will Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert win the Oscar for Best Director at the 95th Academy Awards for their work on 'Everything Everywhere All At Once'?YESṀ500
- Will Spain defeat Sweden in the semi-finals of the Women’s World Cup 2023?YESṀ500
- Will Spain defeat Sweden in the semi-finals of the Women’s World Cup 2023?YESṀ250
97%