Magnus Hambleton's calibration
Grade: C, Score: -5.75
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Magnus Hambleton bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
- By 2024, a significant fraction of philosophers (>20%) take seriously the notion that language models with a size and architecture similar to GPT-3 are partially consciousNOṀ10
- Will a webcomic written by an AI have more than 25,000 followers on Twitter by the end of 2022?NOṀ10
- Will Ben Landau-Taylor tell us to evacuate for risk of nuclear war before Apr 1 2022?NOṀ5
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
95%