Will there be a terror attack in a major European city this Christmas?
45
230
910
resolved Feb 2
Resolved
NO

Will resolve on January 2nd if no terror attacks occur.
Otherwise any terror attack in a major European city will resolve to "Yes".

For a city to be major, it must be in the top 30 of this list:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_cities_by_population_within_city_limits

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He was not charged with terrorism charges. I went and found his charges and its basically murder w/ racist motivations. Closed :)

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO
bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

Resolve please

@Catnee Still waiting for outcome on the France shooting.

There has been a right wing terror attack in France. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/25/suspect-in-paris-shooting-says-he-had-pathological-hatred-of-foreigners. Once he is charged by prosecutors in France with a terrorism offence or the prosecutors say he is a terrorist I will resolve.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@MaePole
>The man described himself as “depressive” and having “suicidal” tendencies, recounting that he had planned to kill himself with a last bullet after his attack, the prosecutor said.

seems to more of a lone-gunman rampage and not so much a terrorist.

I think the odds for the prosecution raising terrorism-charge are about 50%.

@BjornJurgens I think him being depressed doesn't discount the possibility of it being a terror attack. Really, it's about whether he was trying to further a political or religious aim using terror-inducing acts of violence. That will depend on how he justifies the attack hence why I'm waiting for the prosecution.

@Gabrielle you're the only one who has voted yes, tempting fate?

predicted YES

@MaePole I don't want it to happen, but it seems like at least around a 15% chance.

@Gabrielle The payout for Yes is mental now.