Austin is of course a founder of Manifold and author of such bangers as “In defense of SBF.”

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, before January 1, 2028 (12:00 AM UTC), Austin Chen publicly expresses regret regarding his decision to hire Caroline Ellison at Manifund.

• Definition of "publicly regret": Austin Chen must explicitly state in a public forum that hiring Caroline Ellison was a "mistake," "error in judgment," or that he "regrets" the decision, or use substantially equivalent phrasing conveying that he wishes he had not hired her.

• Eligible Sources: Public posts, replies, or comments by Austin Chen on X/Twitter (e.g., via his handle @akrolsmir), his Substack newsletter The Fox Says, Manifold Markets, or direct quotes attributed to him in reputable news publications (such as Bloomberg or Business Insider).

• Edge Cases:

  • If Caroline Ellison is terminated or resigns from Manifund without Austin Chen publicly stating that the original hiring decision was a mistake or source of regret, this market will not resolve YES.

  • If Manifund ceases operations, or if Austin Chen leaves the organization, the market will resolve NO unless an explicit statement of regret is made prior to or during the transition.