The storm has to have had hurricane strength according to the NHC at the time of landfall. I may wait a couple of days to resolve in case of uncertainty but I will not wait until the next year's NHC report which sometimes includes reassessments.
Landfall: The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Source: National Hurricane Center.
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If Tammy became subtropical and hit US with hurricane force winds, do we go by title - i.e. it has to be a hurricane?
"The storm has to have had hurricane strength according to the NHC at the time of landfall." in description might be interpreted to mean that hurricane strength winds is sufficient? The italics make me think this is just to clarify that a former hurricane hitting US does not result in a true resolution and doesn't weaken the requirement to be a hurricane. However seems sensible to check.
@parhizj That’s a good starting point. Forecast models showing 0 development of any hurricanes for the next two weeks takes out half of October (although to be fair that’s not 100% reliable but pretty close) which IMO would properly price us at 10% for the second half.
@JoshuaHedlund I'm not sure about that type of reduction but to each their own probability estimates. I alternatively think the base rate should probably be held though until ~ 1 week until the end of the month lacking any more fine-grained statistics. I am working on a more general climatology notebook for these types of markets rather than the quickly hacked together work I've been using which relies on monthly statistics.
@parhizj That treats all years as equal weight? This year has been fairly active so maybe should be more than 20%.
I have a slightly different take on time reduction: Take out first 3 days +7 days forecast of no tropical storm formation per NHC (14 days for models seems a bit too aggressive a reduction) plus a couple of days for tropical storm to strengthen to hurricane and have a chance to landfall on US. That excludes first 12 days but those first 12 days are probably about as active as the last 19 days.
I created my own list of landfalling storms/hurricanes from best track data for each basin. I haven't had time to double check the data/functions nor combine the data from both basins. The old script I had definitely had some minor count errors (both in the source list (https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html which isn't the most up-to-date and complete, and in the script itself).
This new notebook required to calculate the states the storm landfalled in from gps coords, and subsequently, quite a bit of data processing. These are numbers for North Atlantic basin: (Edit: redid graphs to fix scaling for y-axis)
Oct 1-31 North Atlantic Basin: 25%
Oct 8-31: 17%
Oct 15-31: 9%
Oct 22-31: 6%
For Oct 12-31 Atlantic basin it is 9%. Reminder this only covers 1991-2022 (I could do other years from 1851-, but I don't know whether that will be better or worse).
For reference, East Pacific basin has a very small percentage (3%) making landfall as hurricane for the month.
