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Already 2024 in the land of the rising Sun

No pivot at the last meeting of the year:

https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-japan-leaves-negative-rates-and-ycc-1-ceiling-rate-unchanged-20231219/

Bank of Japan leaves negative rates and YCC 1% ceiling rate unchanged

Bank of Japan announces their main policy planks remain in place untouched, as expected.

USD/JPY has jumped sharply higher.

• Maintains short-term interest rate target at -0.1%

• Maintains 10-year JGB yield target around 0%, with 1% upper reference rate kept unchanged

• YCC decision unanimous

• BOJ makes no change to forward guidance

Signs of Bank of Japan Pivot Slam Tokyo Stocks, Treasuries, and the Dollar Alike

“investors are now pricing in a 37% chance that the BoJ are going to end their negative interest rate policy at the meeting on December 19, and at one point overnight that even got as high as 45%,” noted Henry Allen, an analyst at Deutsche Bank."

At its policy meeting on Tuesday, the Bank of Japan abolished its cap on 10-year government bond yields but this did not signal an imminent rise in interest rates. (source)

In some sense we might be "at the pivot point" right now and there is the "other actions" part in the description. Nevertheless, this isn't sufficient to resolve it YES in my opinion as the sentiment is rather a "wait and watch" instead of a "pivot action".

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled it’s unlikely policymakers will have the data needed to declare by year-end that it’s time to put an end to negative interest rates, as he continues to monitor whether a wage-inflation cycle will materialize. (source)

Japan’s central bank is allowing more flexibility in its yield curve control policy, shifting the language used to describe the upper bound of the 10-year Japanese government bond yield.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/31/boj-increases-flexibility-on-yield-curve-control-keeps-rates-unchanged.html

Bank of Japan increases flexibility on yield curve control, keeps rates unchanged

The upper limit of the 10-year bond yield will be held at 1%, but only as a "reference."

It is unlikely that the Bank of Japan will change its monetary easing policy during 2023.

As for historical data, the base lending rate has been 0.3% since December 19, 2008, and the rate applicable to the supplementary checking account program has been -0.1% since February 16, 2016. Based on this, and considering the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S., there is unlikely to be a major policy change during 2023, given the low interest rate conditions that have persisted in recent years.

Source:

Home : 日本銀行 Bank of Japan (boj.or.jp)

@WatabeYoshiyuki Would the uptick in 10-year bond yield force BoJ into action? Yield is currently 0.81%, closing in on the 1% max I think. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/JP10Y-JP

Check out Japan 10 Year Treasury's stock price (JP10Y-JP) in real time

Get Japan 10 Year Treasury (JP10Y-JP:Tradeweb) real-time stock quotes, news, price and financial information from CNBC.

@MP maybe correct “Q4 2022” in the description 👆👍

This market gets a Manifold-sponsored 5k Mana boost because I consider it of public interest.

@marktweise people don't like my BoJ markets on manifold, unfourtunately.

Perhaps liquidity subsidies may help, idk

@MP I’m randomizing it and in this case it said “boost only”. I suspect boosting is not that effective. We’ll see.

This does not appear to have happened yet - while the BOJ tweaked the YCC it did not get rid of it. No other major changes.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/boj-seen-keeping-ultra-low-rates-may-debate-tweak-yield-cap-2023-07-27/

Bank of Japan loosens grip on rates as prices rise, markets bet on bigger pivot

The Bank of Japan heralded the start of a slow shift away from decades of massive monetary stimulus on Friday, allowing the country's interest rates to rise more freely in line with increasing inflation and economic growth.