resolved Dec 31

Will the Bank of Japan pivot by Q4 2023? (End of yield curve control, Announce tapering towards the end of QE, raise benchmark interest rates, or other actions adjudicated by me using the mainstream financial media)

I won't bet on this market.

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Already 2024 in the land of the rising Sun

bought Ṁ1,700 of NO

No pivot at the last meeting of the year:


Bank of Japan leaves negative rates and YCC 1% ceiling rate unchanged

Bank of Japan announces their main policy planks remain in place untouched, as expected.

USD/JPY has jumped sharply higher.

  • Maintains short-term interest rate target at -0.1%

  • Maintains 10-year JGB yield target around 0%, with 1% upper reference rate kept unchanged

  • YCC decision unanimous

  • BOJ makes no change to forward guidance

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Signs of Bank of Japan Pivot Slam Tokyo Stocks, Treasuries, and the Dollar Alike

“investors are now pricing in a 37% chance that the BoJ are going to end their negative interest rate policy at the meeting on December 19, and at one point overnight that even got as high as 45%,” noted Henry Allen, an analyst at Deutsche Bank."

predicted NO

At its policy meeting on Tuesday, the Bank of Japan abolished its cap on 10-year government bond yields but this did not signal an imminent rise in interest rates. (source)

In some sense we might be "at the pivot point" right now and there is the "other actions" part in the description. Nevertheless, this isn't sufficient to resolve it YES in my opinion as the sentiment is rather a "wait and watch" instead of a "pivot action".

bought Ṁ618 of NO

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled it’s unlikely policymakers will have the data needed to declare by year-end that it’s time to put an end to negative interest rates, as he continues to monitor whether a wage-inflation cycle will materialize. (source)

bought Ṁ100 NO from 25% to 24%
bought Ṁ100 of NO

It is unlikely that the Bank of Japan will change its monetary easing policy during 2023.

As for historical data, the base lending rate has been 0.3% since December 19, 2008, and the rate applicable to the supplementary checking account program has been -0.1% since February 16, 2016. Based on this, and considering the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S., there is unlikely to be a major policy change during 2023, given the low interest rate conditions that have persisted in recent years.


Home : 日本銀行 Bank of Japan (boj.or.jp)

@MP maybe correct “Q4 2022” in the description 👆👍

predicted NO

This market gets a Manifold-sponsored 5k Mana boost because I consider it of public interest.

@marktweise people don't like my BoJ markets on manifold, unfourtunately.

Perhaps liquidity subsidies may help, idk

predicted NO

@MP I’m randomizing it and in this case it said “boost only”. I suspect boosting is not that effective. We’ll see.

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