Reflexivity: Reflexivity is a theory that positive feedback loops between expectations and economic fundamentals can cause price trends that substantially and persistently deviate from equilibrium prices. Reflexivity's primary proponent is George Soros, who credits it with much of his success as an investor.

I think that eventually prediction markets will become important actors for the course of events, with the probabilities we create affecting the way agents behave.

If any evidence emerges that anyone at Time magazine related to the POTY used Manifold or the informations we generated were read by them, this market resolves to YES. This evidence has to come by January 2024 end.

EDIT: These informations should be related to the POTY market!

I won't bet. This market may require judgment. I'll hold a slow bar to resolve to YES.

Related market