By June 2024, will Musk have sold another Tesla share?
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Today, December 22nd 2022, Elon Musk said in a Twitter Spaces that he won't sell another share for 18 to 24 months.

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-wont-sell-tesla-stock-next-year-recession-overdue-2022-12

Musk famously lied about it before.

If Musk files with the SEC for having sold another share from now on, this market solves to YES.

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predicts YES

“Large hedge funds and credit investors on Wall Street held conversations with the banks late last year, offering to buy the senior-most portion of the debt at roughly 65 cents on the dollar. But in recent interviews with the Financial Times, several said there was no price at which they would buy the bonds and loans, given their inability to gauge whether Linda Yaccarino, X's chief executive, could turn the business around.”

https://www.ft.com/content/bc0b6534-c1b6-4979-bc21-30c1ff4594a2

predicts YES
bought Ṁ100 of YES

“X generated a little more than $600 million in advertising revenue in each of the first three quarters of the year, and is anticipating a similar performance in the current period, according to a person familiar with the numbers. That compares to more than $1 billion per quarter in 2022.

“The company also makes money from its subscription service, X Premium, and from data licensing agreements. External estimates peg the subscription business at less than $120 million annually. In 2021, X (then Twitter) generated $572 million in revenue from data licensing deals.

“X was not profitable when Musk took over, but the company reported more than $5 billion in revenue the year before Musk acquired the company. In early 2021, Twitter executives led by then-CEO Jack Dorsey set a public goal to reach $7.5 billion in revenue by the end of 2023.”

bought Ṁ100 of YES
predicts YES

It’s going to be difficult to raise more funds for X at this point…

predicts YES

@TP8ac2 Not really. He isn’t going to tell MBS to go fuck himself.

predicts YES

@BTE Sure, but do you think MBS and other X investors are going to give him more money as X’s losses increase?

predicts YES

Would a private sale, block sale, or private transfer of Tesla shares rather than open market trading sales (as was done by Musk in 2022) still count towards a yes resolution?

predicts YES

@TP8ac2 I think so, if he'd need to file with the SEC

When did he lie about this?

predicts NO

@Shai Idk, September last year?

predicts NO

@MP Not really lying, he said he didn’t have plans to at that time. Plans can change 🤷‍♂️

predicts NO

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