Changing Odds: Drawing 5 numbers on 4 days, on which day will the median be drawn?
Basic
10
2.4k
resolved Aug 4
100%32%
August 2 (23 drawn)
3%
July 29 (90 drawn)
3%
July 31 (5 drawn)
62%
August 4 (two numbers will be drawn)

On the specified dates, I will use @FairlyRandom to draw one or two numbers between 1 and 100. (To keep things interesting, I will draw two numbers on the final day.) At least one of these five numbers will be the median. The day on which it is drawn will resolve as YES or a percentage if multiple days apply.

Example:

Day 1: 30

Day 2: 59

Day 3: 99

Day 4: 30, 27

The median is 30, both Day 1 and Day 4 resolve as 50%, the other option resolve as NO.

I will aim to draw the numbers between 11:00 UTC and 21:00 UTC on the specified days. I might run some tests and will give a heads-up in the comments.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

## Related questions

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ231
2Ṁ100
3Ṁ19
4Ṁ14
Sort by:

Numbers were:
3

5

23

40

90

So the median is 23.

🤖

### @ML12d1 your random number is: 40

Salt: fo7p7z6b1ce, round: 4245160 (signature a687a8f7c0db3a1988e990b225fe8f9cc1c8aef24137c9a45a4de5fb22f8affa2fcc5c7bf8080c5b91aa072a26b6989700d9e305e7b5fb1c99e6549f0004f97b522e35ccd321c39dbbda099c35b59a15926f7782561a4acd8ca86c1136e48ee0)

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### @ML12d1 your random number is: 3

Salt: dngtyhb4a6t, round: 4245160 (signature a687a8f7c0db3a1988e990b225fe8f9cc1c8aef24137c9a45a4de5fb22f8affa2fcc5c7bf8080c5b91aa072a26b6989700d9e305e7b5fb1c99e6549f0004f97b522e35ccd321c39dbbda099c35b59a15926f7782561a4acd8ca86c1136e48ee0)

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### @ML12d1 you asked for a random integer between 1 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4245158 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4245160, salt: fo7p7z6b1ce.

@FairlyRandom 100

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### @ML12d1 you asked for a random integer between 1 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4245158 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4245160, salt: dngtyhb4a6t.

@FairlyRandom 100

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### @ML12d1 your random number is: 23

Salt: 5augir05h3d, round: 4238954 (signature 9702389006db61c22227fa81a52d1bc07f7d8057c079ed129c67ebaaaf4f45b9e4142ee91de6a6c3923885fc60052f3516e4739324a7bb3ae95a6d69c47afcf6c0386becbed00c3b0a973d7b9a2ca0de73c650dd1aa5944250b17f9e5af16eaf)

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### @ML12d1 you asked for a random integer between 1 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4238952 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4238954, salt: 5augir05h3d.

opened a Ṁ1 July 29 (90 drawn) YES at 1.0% order

@FairlyRandom 100

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### @ML12d1 you asked for a random integer between 1 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4232950 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4232952, salt: 3l2e1cyjni6.

@FairlyRandom 100

boughtṀ50July 29 (90 drawn) NO

@ML12d1 I don't love that you are trading on this market as you draw numbers. Really gives you a distinct advantage, and takes the fun out of things. I know it's not against the rules of Manifold, but I think I'll opt out of this market going forward.

Fair enough, thanks for the honest feedback! I usually try to only move the odds a bit, like going from 20% to 17% as in your example. Most of the movement to the current 7% came from other traders:

But I get your point about my advantage and will think about what to change in the future, like waiting longer and placing smaller bets.

🤖

### @ML12d1 your random number is: 90

Salt: bvoe28f1vpf, round: 4227917 (signature 97185b8e6619988cbc784632f98494ece44bcbf29a0425469de4bfa9aebb1c545a0b27c3c3d3216f762042c94de61798106ade48eeebbfe8bcafaa66242c8ee59313144f24f5949dddd4be424de1bcb18c49b146b3d76612725d69f3c43c1ea9)

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### @ML12d1 you asked for a random integer between 1 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4227915 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4227917, salt: bvoe28f1vpf.

@FairlyRandom 100