New market with the correct date https://manifold.markets/MCMillennium/will-california-ab-645-speed-safety-234ba086cb1b

Will California AB 645 (speed safety cameras) pass in the legislature?

50% chance. Assembly Bill 645 (summary from Walk SF) would allow six California cities to pilot traffic speed cameras (which are currently illegal). The bill has passed in the Assembly and is now being taken up by the State Senate. This market shall resolve to YES if the bill passes the in the legislature by the legislative deadline of Septebmer 14, 2023. Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/MCMillennium/will-california-ab-645-speed-safety-fddd72fb4a92)

This bill just passed Senate Appropriations and is headed to a floor vote. Unfortunately right now the voting is closed.

yeah unclose it pls

@KevinBurke sorry about that. Is today the deadline for legislation to pass?

@MCMillennium changed to Sep 15 but I think we will know well before then

wait the criteria are

Senate. This market shall resolve to YES if the bill passes the in the legislature by the legislative deadline of August 31, 2023.

it's now sep 1, doesn't this resolve no?

@jacksonpolack I think the description is incorrect. August 31 is the deadline to pass off of the suspense file. The deadline to pass a floor vote is at a later date.

@KevinBurke (The suspense file is basically the final committee hearing before a floor vote)

huh, i have no idea how to interpret the resolution then

I think no, n/a, and wait and yes if passes are all reasonable, because the no bettors bet due to the aug 31 deadline

@KevinBurke The resolution criteria were clear and any resolution other than NO would simply be wrong.

@jacksonpolack I was incorrect, sorry. My intent was the deadline for the legislature to pass bills this year, which is actually September 14. The text of the market says the legislative deadline is August 31 which is wrong.

I am inclined to resolve this N/A to refund bets and then create a new market with the correct date.

@MCMillennium Basically zero bills have passed the Legislature this year at this point . I don’t know what to say. Anyone who thought about your intent for two seconds would have interpreted this the correct way

@MCMillennium I think NO is the correct resolution based on the stated. criteria, but if this is too controversial resolving N/A seems reasonable.

It can get off of the suspense file though right?

@KevinBurke I think you're right. I interpreted the process wrong. Streetsblog says it has until the end of the week to escape the Senate suspense file.

AB 645 went to suspense file on 2023-08-28 and will not pass out of the legislature. I will close this to NO after 24 hours.

@MCMillennium Whoops, I was wrong. There is still a chance for AB 645 to pass out of Senate suspense file this week. https://cal.streetsblog.org/2023/08/28/speed-camera-bill-has-bent-over-backwards-to-answer-opponents

Speed Camera Bill Has Bent Over Backwards to Answer Opponents - Streetsblog California

But some of them will not be satisfied no matter what

It looks like it got referred back to commitee: https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billStatusClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240AB645

I'm not familiar enough with the CA legislature to confidently interpret that, but maybe someone here is.

@RobertCousineau many bills go through Appropriations and there is a deadline for them to make it out of the committee. Bills have to be passed by Aug 31. More reading: https://calmatters.org/politics/2017/09/capitol-suspense-california-bills-vanish-almost-without-trace/

The Suspense Files: California bills vanish almost without a trace

As befits a good murder plot, California lawmakers target potential victims by placing the bills on what they call the “suspense file.”