MAcs 19R1's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.35
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when MAcs 19R1 bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
- Will Alibaba be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?NOṀ10
- Will France see large-scale protests (eg a turnout of 10,000 in Paris) due to winter energy prices and/or shortages?NOṀ10
- Will France see large-scale protests (eg a turnout of 10,000 in Paris) due to winter energy prices and/or shortages?NOṀ10
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Swiss Popular vote on 3 March 2024 : Will the "Initiative for a 13th OASI pension payment" be accepted?YESṀ70
- Will the Swiss National Initiative for a 13th pension payment per year win the popular majority?YESṀ50
- EUR/CHF >= 1, will the euro be equal to or higher than the Swiss franc by the end of 2023?NOṀ25
70%