Currently, 9/86 charities listed on this page are directly related to horse racing.
https://manifold.markets/charity
This means that ~10.5% of the charities available on manifold are directly horse-racing related. Over 10% of charities listed have been horse-racing related for at least a month.
(Fortunately, these horsaholics have only siphoned 7 bucks away from real charity options)
If for example, if 4 new charities were added, and none of them were directly related to horse-racing, then 9/90 charities would be horse-racing, which would not be over 10%, resolving in NO.
If the Manifold team removed some of these spammy horse-racing charities, the % would also likely go down below 10%, resulting in a NO.
This will resolve YES if 10% or more of the charities listed on that page are horse-racing related. Otherwise, it will result in a NO.
If a "big pivot" happens that dramatically changes how applicable this question is, then it will resolve N/A.
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@LukeAlvarez It's 05/14, this can resolve YES.
The bottom 10 charities are all directly related to horse-racing (ignore the 2 on the top left). There are some other horse-related charities (e.g. stable recovery using horses for therapy), but these 10 are uncontroversially about horse-racing itself. there are 93 charities on the page. thus, >=10.7% of the charities are directly related to horse-racing on 05/14. resolves YES
currently, it looks like 10 out of 93 charities are directly related to horse-racing (this excludes the "horse therapy" charity to be conservative, as I don't know if that counts as "horse-racing"). so unless some of those charities are removed, this seems very likely to resolve YES.