Lukas's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.55
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Lukas bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will Murasaki Shion get the highest peak concurrent viewers of any vtuber livestream on YouTube on 12th March, 2023?YESṀ50
- Will the hololive corporate channel get the peak CCV of any vtuber livestream on YouTube on 19th March, 2023?YESṀ30
- Will Destiny's clip "Destiny Watches Ben Shapiro Clip And Can’t Believe How Ridicu" reach 50k views by 3/24 9 A.M. PST?NOṀ25
95%
97%