Will Hollywood have its worst summer at the box office since 2000?
Sep 3


Based on this story from the New York Post

The summer film season runs from the first weekend in May through Labor Day.

This is a prediction market. Market will close Labor Day (Sept 2) and will resolve in Sept when data is released.

2000 Summer Box Office Receipts*: $3,001,153,213

Market will resolve YES if 2024 Summer Box Office receipts is less than 2000 Summer Box Office receipts.

Market will resolve NO if 2024 Summer Box Office is greater than or equal to 2000 Summer Box Office receipts.

Data Source: Box Office Mojo

* number calculated by totaling the 'gross' column in the data source link


I do not bet in markets I create. In the event that I am unable or unavailable to resolve the market, the market may be resolved by Manifold Mods. Any changes to the market description will be noted in the change log.

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We’ll see, I guess, but in order to come in lower than 2021 it seems like there would have to be another global catastrophe that specifically affects theater attendance.

See the resolution criteria:

Market will resolve YES if 2024 Summer Box Office receipts is less than 2000 Summer Box Office receipts.

The title is just quoting from the article. Comscore is presumably excluding the pandemic years, as is somewhat standard.

Just flagging in case you want to sell. The title is worded a bit imprecisely given the resolution criteria (although it’s quoting the article), and ideally the creator give the actual post 2000 box office total they plan to use (im guessing it’s boxofficemojo’s 3.05B)

Yeah, the intent of the market was a prediction-market version of Betteridge's law of headlines. The article didn't mention pandemic years and I didn't think to check those years but I'm going to presume that 2021 is excluded as an outlier.

re: 2000 box office total - I totaled the 'gross' column in the data source link and got $3,001,153,213. It's less than the number @Ziddletwix got (an I'm not entirely sure why) but it's a method I can replicate for the market resolution to ensure consistency. I'll update the description.

Oh odd—I was just reading my number off this https://www.boxofficemojo.com/season/

Also BOM, so not sure why disagreement. But it’s small, so fine to use that number you calculated and stick with it for resolution

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