How many marijuana thefts in Oregon will be reported in July?

120Ṁ45

Aug 1

expected

ALL

Background

The Oregon Liquor and Cannabis Commission provides a dashboard about documented theft activity at OLCC Recreational Marijuana Program licensed locations. Recently there has been a decline in activity, but will it spike again later this year?

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Market Resolution

This is a prediction market. Market will close 31 July and resolve in August when all data has been reported.

Market will resolve to the total number of documented theft incidents in July. If the reported value is higher than the highest value in the market, the market will resolve to the highest possible value.

Data Source: OLCC Theft Activity Dashboard

Disclaimer

I do not bet in markets I create. In the event that I am unable or unavailable to resolve the market, the market may be resolved by Manifold Mods. Any changes to the market description will be noted in the change log.

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What is Manifold?

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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

Why use play money?

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