How many classical games will be needed to decide the World Chess Championship 2024 (the Ding Liren - Gukesh D match)
How many classical games will be needed to decide the World Chess Championship 2024 (the Ding Liren - Gukesh D match)
32
2kṀ33kresolved Dec 12
100%98.5%
Decided after 14 games
0.1%
Decided after 8 (or fewer) games
0.1%
Decided after 9 games
0.1%
Decided after 10 games
0.1%
Decided after 11 games
0.1%
Decided after 12 games
0.1%
Decided after 13 games
0.8%
Tiebreaks needed
The match is best out of 14 games, which means that it finishes as soon as one of the players reaches 7.5, which is possible in 8 games. It's also possible (albeit unlikely) that one of the players forfeits the match in even fewer games
If tied after 14 games (7-7), the match will be decided in tiebreaks
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024
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bought Ṁ50 Decided after 13 games YES3mo
Here's all 21 possible scenarios for the final 3 games https://manifold.markets/ChinmayTheMathGuy/exact-result-of-games-12-13-14-in-w
bought Ṁ50 Decided after 11 games YES
Pre-registering my take here so I look like a genius or idiot (but most likely genius) : Gukesh wins 7.5-3.5 by drawing or winning game 11. Ding is subsequently sentenced to 5 years hard labor in a Chinese gulag to strengthen his character
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
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In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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