Will Austin TX leave COVID Stage 5 prior to February 15, 2022?
Will Austin TX leave COVID Stage 5 prior to February 15, 2022?
14
100Ṁ754resolved Feb 15
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Austin is currently in Stage 5: https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/0ad7fa50ba504e73be9945ec2a7841cb
Stages are set based on indicator thresholds listed here: https://www.austintexas.gov/page/covid-19-risk-based-guidelines
NOTE: Austin doesn't immediately change stages when thresholds are met. They can delay for weeks, especially when the indicators are hovering right around the borderline.
This market will resolve YES iff Austin changes to any other stage prior to midnight CST the morning of February 15, 2022. (A Feb 14 announcement of a change "effective the 15th" is still a NO.)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.