We might expect, under various views of the future, explosive intellectual growth in the 21st century, so that more intellectual progress happens in it than in all of preceding history.

If that does happen, then in particular there are integers X and Y, X < Y, X and Y in [2001,2101], such that more intellectual progress will happen between 1 January X and 1 January Y than in all of history before 1 Jan X, and so that Y-X is minimized. If so, then this questions resolves to PROB equal to min(2*(Y-X), 100)%. If it doesn't happen, then it resolves YES.

So for example:

• If it happens within one calendar year, it resolves to 2%.

• If it happens within 3 calendar years, it resolves to 6%.

• If it happens within 10 calendar years, it resolves to 20%.

• If it happens within 25 calendar years, it resolves to 50%.

• If it happens within 50 or more calendar years, it resolves to YES.

However, measuring progress is very subjective. Thus this question resolves to:

• 1. An already established and wide consensus on what is the least number of years in which such a progress happened, or that it did not happen, if such a consensus exists. If the wide consensus is not a point estimate but rather say an interval or similar, the question might resolve to the mean of that interval, if that is deemed reasonable.

• 2. To the median of a poll of Manifold Moderators or some other group which is perceived to be more trustworthy and knowledgeable.