LostFutures's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2.11
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when LostFutures bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
30%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
- Will the room-temperature superconductor market get more than 5000 unique traders?YESṀ60
- Will an AI that can win a tournament of Diplomacy (with white-press) as often as top human players in games against 6 human players exist by the end of 2030?YESṀ40
- Will Joe Biden attend the Queen's funeral?YESṀ20
97%