Tomorrow.Bio is a cryopreservation organization. Market resolves NO if, before the end of 2030, at least one human brain cryopreserved at Tomorrow.Bio has been severely damaged.
The resolution criteria and the context of the market are elaborated below.
Context, fineprint, edge cases, etc.
This market is trying to capture a common sense notion of "are the human brains at Tomorrow.Bio safe", partially to guide decision-making on whether one would want to be cryopreserved there. Cases where this is not the case, and hence scenarios where the market resolves NO include:
A cryopreserved brain at Tomorrow.Bio undergoes severe mechanical damage. (E.g. if a brain were for some mysterious reason cut in half, this would count.)
A cryopreserved brain undergoes damage from being a long time in warm temperatures* (e.g. due to failure in cryopreserving systems).
A cryopreserved brain gets mysteriously lost (e.g. due to logistical issues)
(Here and below "brain" refers to a human brain.)
Scenarios which are not sufficient for a NO-resolution include
Dispatching procedure fails (see here). That is, failures before cooling down / cryopreservation starts do NOT affect the market's resolution
Non-brain parts of a cryopreserved body are damaged
Tomorrow.Bio ceases to exist, but all of the cryopreserved brains are successfully transported to other cryopreservation organizations to be preserved
*Leaving "long time" and "warm temperature" undefined for now, as I do not have sufficient information on what causes substantial damage.
Note: If Tomorrow.Bio has no cryopreserved brains during the relevant time period, this market resolves YES.
Ultimately, the market will resolve in the spirit of the question, not based on any exact criterion. I will not participate in this market.
If cryopreservation is technically successful but it turns out to be unwise to send your unencrypted and undefended soul to Y2030, does this resolve NO?
@MartinRandall This feels like a very vague question to me, but it sounds like this is not sufficient for a NO resolution.
Basically, this market takes into account the safety of the cryopreserved brains, and not things like "even if cryopreservation works it would be unwise to do it because...". Even facts like "the host organization is facing severe legal issues and they might have to shut down" would not be taken into account if they do not affect the brains there before 2030 - though to be clear it is plausible that the brains would indeed be in risk in such a case.