Logan's calibration
Grade: C-, Score: -8.02
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Logan bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
50%
- Will Destiny's side channel "Last Night On Destiny" have more monthly views than Vaush's main channel at the end of the December?NOṀ10
- Will Keffals publicly apologize to Destiny and retract her defamatory statements per his cease and desist?NOṀ10
- Will Keffals publicly apologize to Destiny and retract her defamatory statements per his cease and desist?NOṀ10
60%
70%
80%
90%