Within one year of starting feminizing HRT, will I develop period-like symptoms?

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resolved Sep 5

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The medical community seems to be somewhat divided on this, but anecdotal reports show that at least some subset of trans women get period-like symptoms on a period-like cycle. This is obviously less easy to track, since there is no visible marker of a cycle, but I intend to look for this.

This question resolves to YES if 12 months after start, I have noticed cyclical symptoms unrelated to those found in my existing, somewhat-cyclical depression. This question resolves to NO if I am not able to find such evidence, and N/A if hormone therapy is halted prior to market close.

Examples of symptoms could be:

repeated migraines on a semi-regular interval
menstrual diarrhea
bloating
nausea

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Okay, I am a bit torn here. For about 3 months I had symptoms that very much align, consistently around the early 20s days. Since then, it is either less noticable or overwhelmed by outside factors.

Another factor is that it got less reliable of a signal a bit before I started progesterone. The doctor warned that it would likely decrease estrogen levels a bit, and I have definitely noticed changes that reflect that.

In short, I think the answer is NO, but I would not be surprised if the answer in 3 years is YES, because a lot of things are still settling. Maybe 40% on that front?

I will resolve tomorrow to NO unless persuaded otherwise

predicted NO

@LivInTheLookingGlass you "have noticed symptoms" but have not "found evidence"? Yeah, hard to resolve. Good job not trading.

predicted NO

@LivInTheLookingGlass

For about 3 months I had symptoms that very much align

If this was the first three months this could be due to adjusting to a new set-point. I would expect symptoms sometimes occurring when starting or stopping hormones, but not cyclical symptoms on a steady correct dose of hormones, and this was my reason for betting NO

@catfromdevnull I only got blood tests quarterly, but some of the methods for estimating hormone levels would agree with that conclusion. The last time I remember was in May or June, so that would put it starting around February thru April. That is definitely when my levels were starting to level out. There were also a bunch of changes to how sex, uh, worked that line up with the start and end of that period if you squint a little. I think that lends further evidence to your interpretation

I'm >99% confident actual period-like symptoms won't happen, but much less confident about the perception thereof (because as you note some trans women do think they do). In general people are pretty bad at judging the causes of minor variations in their health / general feelings

boughtṀ140YES

@LivInTheLookingGlass Calling you out, as per request:

bought Ṁ25 of YES

Anecdotal experience: yeah, HRT can do that. My chronic pain tends to get worse about once every four weeks, among other things.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

As I understand it, most of these symptoms are due to progesterone metabolites, mainly allopregnanolone. If you plan on taking progesterone cyclically at high dosages then you could maybe expect this, but that's a less common HRT regimen. Progesterone likely increases breast cancer risk over time regardless of whether it's bioidentical or not. Possibly due to how it changes the expression of CYP34A in the liver (ciswomen, tend to have 30% more expression in their livers), which causes an increase in the metabolism of estradiol to 16-hydroxyestrone which has been correlated with breast cancer risk. https://transfemscience.org/articles/breast-cancer/

@d6e Don't get me wrong, I think it's unlikely, but I saw enough anecdotal reports of it that it made me curious. The only one I'm worried about is migraines, since I already get those on occasion. The rest are probably negligible odds

predicted NO

@LivInTheLookingGlass I wouldn't worry about migraines. No one I know has ever had migraines from HRT and that's the kind of thing that could be subject to the nocebo effect in the case of anecdotes. Just make sure you stay hydrated, stick to a typically prescribed HRT regimen, and you'll be fine.

*This comment has been removed by Manifold*

predicted NO

Can we block someone so as to never see their messages here?

@DrP Your comment has been removed as it was deemed inappropriate and written with malicious intent based on your previous activity. We will not tolerate such behaviour. This is your final warning. Any subesquent infractions will result in either a temporary or permanent ban. Also, please resolve this market asap: https://manifold.markets/DrP/will-donald-j-trump-be-the-presiden

@JoyVoid Yes, hopefully we will implement such a feature sometime this month (maybe next month at the latest). Also apologies to anyone who had to see this message and were soured by it. It has sparked internal discussion on how we want to approach moderation moving forward and focus on doing what is necessary to foster the best community possible.

@ManifoldMarkets I have legitimate reason not to resolve that market yet as I have received recent and substantial evidence that there is too much ambiguity to do so. There should be clarity soon and for those concerned whether I will resolve it in a timely and accurate matter still have access to the derivative market.

Manner*

sold Ṁ58 of NO

Thanks. Though I am surprised by the statement about a potential ban which seems to be in contradiction with its explicit design? Maybe should discuss this in the manifold group or elsewhere.