Olivia's calibration
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Olivia bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
10 largest bets for each bucket
1%
5%
- Will the next Speaker of the House be elected by end of day January 6th?NOṀ10
- Will Donald Trump be arrested in the immediate aftermath (48 hours) of the midterm elections?NOṀ4
- Will Trudy Valentine win the Missouri US Senate seat in the 2022 election?NOṀ2
- Will Taiwan declare independence in 2022?NOṀ2
- Blue Wave: Will the Democrats win at least 53 seats in the Senate?NOṀ2
- Will Donald Trump be US President on September 12, 2022?NOṀ0
10%
- Will Herschel Walker win the GA Senate race on the first ballot?NOṀ30
- Will I be pregnant before I turn 34?NOṀ21
- Will a Democrat win the 2022 US Senate race in North Carolina?NOṀ20
- Will Donald Trump be US President on September 12, 2022?NOṀ15
- Will Stacey Abrams win the 2022 Georgia (GA) governor's race?NOṀ15
- Will Democrats maintain control of the House in the 2022 midterms?NOṀ14
- Will Donald Trump be arrested in the immediate aftermath (48 hours) of the midterm elections?NOṀ10
- A Democrat wins the 2022 race for Senate in KentuckyNOṀ10
- Will Democrats maintain control of the House in the 2022 midterms?NOṀ10
- Will I weigh under 230 lbs on 2023-01-01?YESṀ7
20%
- Will Democrats maintain control of the House in the 2022 midterms?NOṀ100
- Will the Senate seat count fall outside of 538's 80% confidence interval on Oct 28NOṀ40
- Will Twitter experience an outage for more than 8 hours by the end of 2022?NOṀ25
- Will the House seat count fall outside of 538's 80% confidence interval on Oct 28NOṀ23
- Will Manifold Markets allow you to bet in terms of probabilities instead of M$ amounts before 2022-05-01?NOṀ20
- Will Manifold allow bot operators to share Leaderboard stats with the bot?NOṀ10
- (ABC does not call control of the House by midnight PT on election day) == (control will go to Democrats)NOṀ10
- (ABC does not call control of the House by midnight PT on election day) == (control will go to Democrats)NOṀ10
- Will the Manifold API have documentation to resolve a Pseudonumeric Market by end of September?YESṀ10
- Will we fund "Water Box 2.0"?YESṀ10
30%
- Will there be realistic AI generated video from natural language descriptions by the start of 2023?NOṀ357
- Will Democrats maintain control of the House in the 2022 midterms?NOṀ46
- Will Liz Truss be Prime Minister of the UK at the start of 2023?NOṀ35
- Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2022?NOṀ32
- Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?NOṀ25
- Will Democrats maintain control of the House in the 2022 midterms?NOṀ24
- Will Biden be president on October 6, 2022? [Self-Resolving]NOṀ20
- Will Democrats maintain control of the Senate in the 2022 midterms?YESṀ20
- Will Democrats maintain control of the House in the 2022 midterms?NOṀ20
- Will the Democrats have control of the House after the Midterms?NOṀ15
40%
- Will Biden be president on October 6, 2022? [Self-Resolving]NOṀ1,000
- Will Biden be president on October 6, 2022? [Self-Resolving]NOṀ480
- Will Biden be president on October 6, 2022? [Self-Resolving]NOṀ480
- Will a Democrat (John Fetterman) win Pennsylvania's 2022 U.S. Senate election (against Republican nominee Dr. Oz)?YESṀ100
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)NOṀ80
- Will Democrats maintain control of the Senate in the 2022 midterms?YESṀ75
- Will Democrats maintain control of the Senate in the 2022 midterms?YESṀ64
- I can enter letters into the limit order textboxNOṀ55
- Will Twitter fire >=50% of employees before April 2023?YESṀ55
- Will Democrats maintain control of the Senate in the 2022 midterms?YESṀ50
50%
- Will a Democrat win the 2022 Nevada governor's race?NOṀ144
- Will a Democrat win the 2022 Wisconsin governor's race?YESṀ100
- Will John Fetterman win the Pennsylvania Senate race?YESṀ100
- Will I lift weights at least 3 times before the dawn of the 7th?YESṀ70
- Will a Democrat win the 2022 Wisconsin governor's race?YESṀ55
- Will Tina Kotek (D) be elected governor of Oregon in the 2022 election?YESṀ50
- Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023?YESṀ47
- Will a Democrat win the 2022 US Senate race in Pennsylvania?YESṀ45
- Will Raphael Warnock be reelected to the US Senate?YESṀ40
- Will the coin that I will be flipping on Wednesday, November 16, 2022 at noon Central Time land heads?YESṀ38
60%
- Will Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter close by October 31?YESṀ70
- Will Liz Truss still be Prime Minister of the UK on Christmas Day 2022?NOṀ51
- Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2022?NOṀ40
- Will we fund "Growth Teams"?YESṀ30
- Will feminizing HRT make me like pickles?YESṀ30
- Will Raphael Warnock be reelected to the US Senate?YESṀ30
- Unable to make posts on any Firefox product, tested on Android, FedoraYESṀ25
- Will I actually switch my database code to PonyORM?NOṀ25
- Will Queen Elizabeth II die before September 11th, 2022?YESṀ25
- Will my hometown district make me sad and reelect Jack BergmanYESṀ25
70%
- Will the Manifold API have documentation to resolve a Pseudonumeric Market by end of September?YESṀ400
- Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023?YESṀ100
- Will Manifold keep the Bot Tax for at least the rest of 2022?YESṀ100
- Will the 2022 Gävle Goat be burned down?NOṀ100
- Will a Democrat win the 2022 Michigan governor's race?YESṀ100
- Will Michigan State University's President Stanley be ousted before the end of 2022?YESṀ70
- Will a market generating bot be launched in Manifold by the end of 2022?YESṀ60
- Will Starlink continue to be available to Ukrainian forces to the end of 2022?YESṀ55
- The balance of the House will be known by Election Day Midnight Hawaii TimeNOṀ50
- Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023?YESṀ50
80%
- Will Biden be president on October 6, 2022? [Self-Resolving]NOṀ4,000
- Will Biden be president on October 6, 2022? [Self-Resolving]NOṀ1,000
- Will Democrats maintain control of the Senate in the 2022 midterms?YESṀ393
- Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023?YESṀ300
- Will a Democrat win the 2022 US Senate race in Nevada?YESṀ279
- Will Michigan pass Proposal 2, (Voting Policies in Constitution Amendment)?YESṀ225
- Will Michigan pass Proposal 1, (Legislative Term Limits and Financial Disclosure Amendment)?YESṀ225
- Will feminizing HRT make me like pickles?YESṀ125
- Will Democrats lose at least one governor on net in the 2022 midterms?NOṀ100
- Resolves YESYESṀ100
90%
- Will I lift weights at least 3 times before the dawn of the 7th?YESṀ383
- Resolves YESYESṀ100
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy lives on October 1st 2022YESṀ100
- At my 3 month hormone checkup, will they INCREASE my dosage?YESṀ100
- Will Chuck Grassley(R) be re-elected U.S. Senator from Iowa?YESṀ100
- Will Ethereum merge to Proof-of-Stake by October?YESṀ88
- A Democrat wins the 2022 race for governor in CaliforniaYESṀ80
- A Democrat wins the 2022 race for governor in HawaiiYESṀ80
- A Democrat wins the 2022 race for governor in MassachusettsYESṀ80
- A Democrat wins the 2022 race for Senate in CaliforniaYESṀ80
95%
- Will I come out to my extended family by end of Halloween?YESṀ1,000
- Will I fall asleep before 4am tonight?YESṀ1,000
- Will you be able to add to liquidity pool again by market close?YESṀ836
- Buy NO to give me incentive to put away 4 loads of laundry tonightYESṀ724
- Will I come out to my extended family by end of Halloween?YESṀ400
- Will Kevin Stitt win the 2022 Oklahoma governor's race?YESṀ400
- Will a Democrat win the 2022 Wisconsin governor's race?YESṀ393
- Will Manifold have a way to report comments by EoY?YESṀ205
- Will I come out to my extended family by end of Halloween?YESṀ111
- Will Olivia repay her 1-week loan?YESṀ100
97%
- Will "Elden Ring" win Game of the Year?YESṀ1,000
- Will the documents found by the FBI include Top Secret information about nuclear weapons?YESṀ542
- A Democrat wins the 2022 race for House in MN-2 (Jared Golden vs Bruce Poliquin)YESṀ500
- Buy NO to give me incentive to put away 4 loads of laundry tonightYESṀ283
- Will I come out to my extended family by end of Halloween?YESṀ264
- Will Manifold have a way to report comments by EoY?YESṀ264
- Will my hometown district make me sad and reelect Jack BergmanYESṀ250
- Will the protests in Iran last into November?YESṀ200
- Will Manifold be mentioned in the next Mantic Monday?YESṀ30
- Buy NO to give me incentive to put away 4 loads of laundry tonightYESṀ25
99%
- Will I get a verified check on Manifold by July 2023?YESṀ10,000
- Will Democrats maintain control of the Senate in the 2022 midterms?YESṀ7,000
- Will Manifold allow you to publish questions ONLY to groups, NOT to the main feed, by the end of the year?YESṀ1,000
- A Democrat wins the 2022 race for governor in IllinoisYESṀ902
- Will a new world record be set at the 2022 Berlin Marathon?YESṀ600
- Buy NO to give me incentive to put away 4 loads of laundry tonightYESṀ562
- Will there be more Atlantic hurricanes in 2022 than 2021?YESṀ500
- A Democrat wins the 2022 race for House in PA-7 (Yadira Caraveo vs Barbara Kirkmeyer)YESṀ500
- This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2023YESṀ500
- Will there be more Atlantic hurricanes in 2022 than 2021?YESṀ400