Will I get vigorous exercise at least 5 days a week for 40 weeks in 2024?
Basic
22
4.4k
2025
33%
chance

For the purposes of this market, a week is 7 days Monday through Sunday. There are 52 weeks in 2024:

Week 1: 1/1/2024 - 1/7/2024

...

Week 52: 12/23/2024 - 12/29/2024


I plan to update the following 52-character string (separated every 10 characters for readability) shortly after the end of each week with the number of days I got vigorous exercise that week.
6553543511 5555055--- ---------- ---------- ---------- --
(Last updated 4/21/2024 = Week 17 Day 7)

Goal met: 11 weeks

Goal failed: 6 weeks
Remaining: 35 weeks


I forbid myself to buy NO or sell YES in this market, but I will allow myself to buy YES.

The market will resolve YES as soon as at least 40 characters in the 52-character string are integers ≥5 and it will resolve NO as soon as at least 13 characters in the 52-character string are integers <5.



Added to description on 1/7/2024: If you would like to see evidence of my exercise (especially if you hold NO), please comment with a suggestion for what I can do.

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Any updates?

Update (beginning of week 13):
Of the 5 weeks I have missed so far, 4 of them were actual vacation weeks and 1 was just laziness. I anticipate having about 8 more vacation weeks later in the year, so I'm not confident whether I will actually meet my goal. I'm still going to continue betting up to 73% whenever possible nonetheless.

predicts YES

Seeing as I'm a huge YES holder, maybe I should provide some evidence of my exercise. For now, I'll record them on a public Google Doc. If anyone wants better evidence, reply with a suggestion for what I can do.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1liDtjvONLsnWjp_wu4o232_J2rZVSAx7x5eZNMWf5b4/edit

predicts YES

(I will update the document right after my exercise, most of the time)

@LinusTang

How’s your push up game? ;)

Not great, my record has been 29 for a while

@LinusTang 

Thanks for the intel!

How many do you plan on doing? Is your target 40, or 52? or 51?

@Eliza I plan on meeting my goal every week that I'm not on vacation, which I think will be at least 42 weeks this year with at least 75% probability.

@LinusTang That's a good start! Maybe you can incorporate vigorous exercise into some vacation weeks also? 40 seems like it could get tricky if your max is 42, if you end up having an illness a couple times you could find yourself falling short.