Currently, the discharge petition to force a floor vote on a bill that would declassify a large portion of the Epstein Files has 217 signatures, all 212 Democrats and 5 Republicans. One common theory why Mike Johnson is delaying swearing in Adelita Grijalva is because she has stated that she would be the 218th signature.

The market will resolve to YES if a Republican becomes the 218th Representative to sign the discharge petition.

The market will resolve to NO if the 218th signature is from a Democrat.

Special cases:

If a Democrat leaves office for any reason, Grijalva is sworn in and signs the petition, and then a Republican signs the discharge petition, the market will resolve to YES.

If a Democrat rescinds their support for the petition, a Republican signs the petition, and then Grijalva is sworn in and signs the petition, the market will resolve to NO.

If a Democrat rescinds their support for the petition, a Republican signs the petition, and then that Democrat unrescinds their support and signs the petition again, the market will resolve to YES.

If a Republican leaves the Republican Party to become an Independent or a Democrat and then signs the petition, the market will resolve to NO, unless either they personally state that the discharge petition was a significant reason why they left the Republican Party and they sign the petition within one week (168 hours) of officially leaving the Republican Party, or they state their intentions to both leave the Republican Party and to sign the discharge petition within the same public statement/press conference even if they state that these two decisions are unrelated provided both actions are taken within one week (168 hours) of the public statement/press conference, in which case the market will resolve to YES.

If a Republican signs the discharge petition and then leaves the Republican Party or the House, even if they leave the Party or House prior to the full House vote, the market will resolve to YES.

If Johnson or any other Speaker of the House allows a full House vote on the bill before the discharge petition receives a 218th signature, the market will resolve to N/A.

If the House Rules are changed to change the number of signatures required for a discharge petition to mandate a full House vote, either by increasing or decreasing it, the market will resolve to N/A.