Grade: B, Score: -2.09
Probability after bet
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Lily bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
3 largest bets for each bucket
- MEDIA1: Mobile tech to encourage women to attend antenatal clinics or give birth at a healthcare facilityṀ40
- Will Steven Spielberg win the Best Director Oscar for his work on 'The Fabelmans' at the 95th Academy Awards?Ṁ13
- Will there be at least one other guilty plea in the FTX/Alameda debacle before the end of February?Ṁ10
- Will Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert win the Oscar for Best Director at the 95th Academy Awards for their work on 'Everything Everywhere All At Once'?Ṁ100
- Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?Ṁ100
- Will 'The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse' win the Oscar for Best Animated Short Film at the 95th Academy Awards?Ṁ70