Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if any single video, image, or piece of content reaches 10 million or more views across any social media platform (TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, X/Twitter, etc.) before March 1, 2026. The content must be publicly viewable and the view count must be verifiable through the platform's official metrics. Resolution is based on the view count at the time of resolution, regardless of whether views accumulate after March 1.

Background

The 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan and Cortina generated multiple viral moments, with a Dr. Pepper jingle reaching 12.6 million views in early 2026. In 2026, things move fast on social media, with algorithmic shifts rewarding content in the wake of viral moments. With only 2 days remaining until March 1, the question hinges on whether a new viral moment emerges in this narrow window.

Considerations

Viral moments are inherently unpredictable. Online trends move fast, with TikTok edits, X reactions, and Instagram reels spreading within minutes. The 10M view threshold is substantial—while some content reaches this level, it typically requires either major events (like the Olympics), celebrity involvement, or exceptional organic appeal. The timeframe is extremely tight, making this a high-bar prediction.

This description was generated by AI.