Will there be a gpt 4 competitor by march 2024?
Basic
21
แน973Mar 2
13%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@mods I don't envy you the task of figuring out how this resolves, but it probably should resolve? The date has passed and the creator is totally inactive.
To make this not an automatic YES, "competitor" presumably means "roughly on a par" or better, not "are there any other LLMs in existence".
Claude 3 Opus is generally agreed to be the first peer of GPT-4 to come out. It released in early March.
Does an event happening "by" March mean before March? The close date suggests it does, in which case this should pretty clearly resolve NO. (But if "by March" includes events in March, it should clearly resolve YES.)
@chrisjbillington How does it resolve though? The original creator didn't exactly give a lot of detail about what they meant
Related questions
Related questions
Who will release a GPT-4o comparable model in 2024?
Will gpt4.5 be released by 2025?
24% chance
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by the end of 2024?
68% chance
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by June 2024?
18% chance
Will the GPT architecture be replaced by another, more efficient architecture by the end of 2024?
31% chance
Will GPT-5 be announced in 2024?
5% chance
Will GPT-4 (or better) still be publicly available at the end of 2024?
92% chance
In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?
2026
In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?
2026