Will BTC reach $100,000 by midnight April 20th, 2024 (approximately three days after the next halvening)?
Apr 21

Self Explanatory

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Midnight in which time zone? The beginning of April 20, at 00:00, doesn't seem to be three days later than the projected halving date of April 18. There are still two difficulty adjustments before then; it doesn't take a very large drop in hash rate for the halving to only take place on or after April 18 (although that's unlikely, of course).

I don't think this market is all that self-explanatory.

@BrunoParga good question. 4/20, the second following 11:59:59 pm eastern time. Just as 4/21 begins in New York

@LesterCrafton with 2919 blocks to go (and one difficulty adjustment), the halving is actually predicted to happen after midnight on the 20th: https://watcher.guru/bitcoin-halving

I think this market would be so much better if you change it to "that days after the halving, whenever it happens". Defining the resolution criteria in two different, not necessarily compatible ways usually makes for worse markets than clear, sharp and unambiguous definitions.