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Will "You May Already Be Canadian" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
6
Ṁ1kṀ635
2028
8%
chance

As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.

This market will resolve to 100% if the post You May Already Be Canadian is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.

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On average you have 126 ancestors to check.

Canada became a nation in 1867.

Today it's 2026.

2026 – 1867 = 159 years.

One generation = 25 years.

round(159 years / 25 years) = 6 generations.

Everyone has 2 parents.

Simplifying for no inbreeding, and everyone being having children with only one partner.

2 ^ 6 = 64 oldest ancestors

2 ^ 7 - 1 = 127 eligible family members, and yourself.

127 - 1 = 126 eligible ancestors.

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