
Will "Simple probes can catch sleeper agents" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
1
100Ṁ532026
9%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post Simple probes can catch sleeper agents is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
Will "Sleeper Agents: Training Deceptive LLMs that ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
28% chance
Will "Catching AIs red-handed" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "Would catching your AIs trying to escape conv..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
19% chance
Will "Awakening" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "Mechanistically Eliciting Latent Behaviors in..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "Sycophancy to subterfuge: Investigating rewar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "Introducing AI Lab Watch" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
9% chance
Will "AIs Will Increasingly Attempt Shenanigans" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
11% chance
Will "Recommendation: reports on the search for mis..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
9% chance
Will "Laziness death spirals" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
16% chance