Will "It's time for a self-reproducing machine" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
1
1kṀ182026
14%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post It's time for a self-reproducing machine is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will "What Goes Without Saying" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
25% chance
Will "The Dream Machine" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
12% chance
Will "Mechanistically Eliciting Latent Behaviors in..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "o1: A Technical Primer" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "Introducing AI Lab Watch" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
9% chance
Will "Timaeus's First Four Months" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
10% chance
Will "The Leopold Model: Analysis and Reactions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "2023 in AI predictions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "Access to powerful AI might make computer sec..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
12% chance