Will "I still think it's very unlikely we're observ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
Basic
1
á¹€5
Feb 1
13%
chance

As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2023 Review resolves in February 2025.

This market will resolve to 100% if the post I still think it's very unlikely we're observing alien aircraft is one of the top fifty posts of the 2023 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.

Get
á¹€1,000
and
S3.00
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules