Leo Gao's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.18
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Leo Gao bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will any AI model generate image of correct QWERTY keyboard consistently, to a prompt, by the end of 2024?YESṀ300
- Will Levels.fyi's next report claim that software engineer salaries continued to decline through 2023?YESṀ200
- Will Kurzgesagt release a video on AI alignment before 1st of August, 2023?NOṀ100
70%
80%
90%
- Will AI be able to generate a PPT slide deck via text prompts by end of 2025?YESṀ50
- At the end of 2023, will I believe that a rapid intelligence explosion is a plausible result of AI capabilities research, and the possibility is worth spending some non-negligible amount of effort investigating?YESṀ25
- Will SBF spend at least one month in jail?YESṀ25
95%
- Will the Russell 2000 hit 2000 before the end of Feb 2024?YESṀ200
- If Slime Mold Time Mold conclude a positive result from their potassium study, will Natalia completely annihilate their analysis within 6 months?YESṀ10
- Will the FTX Future Fund (or regranting program) have failed to pay out on committed grants, as of Feb 1?YESṀ10