Will Cape of Good Hope tanker transit calls average at least 15% higher in April 2026 than in April 2025?

Question

This market resolves YES if the average daily tanker transit calls for the Cape of Good Hope in April 2026 are at least 15.0% higher than in April 2025, using IMF PortWatch chokepoint data. It resolves NO otherwise.

Resolution source: IMF PortWatch “Daily Chokepoint Transit Calls and Trade Volume Estimates,” using the Cape of Good Hope chokepoint and the tanker vessel category. PortWatch says this dataset provides daily chokepoint transit calls and is updated weekly.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 38% chance (5 traders, as of Apr 15, 2026).

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