Will I bet Ṁ500 on YES in this market?
31
176
590
resolved Apr 21
Resolved
NO

In a single trade. Even if i sell afterwards.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted YES

My actions were calculated, but man am I bad at math.

predicted NO

I think this market is my absolute success. I came up with a trap, implemented it, and actually caught 15 people in it! Well, I could play it better and get another hundred in profit, but overall I'm satisfied.

Obvious idea. make a market where I can make a profit if it's low and people will think it's too low. But actually I'm using the next best strategy, I'm keeping it low!

predicted YES

Hm, I feel like @Lavander could be baiting people to bet NO and then make a huge profit betting YES? Right now it looks like a 500YES bet makes 850M profit, though I don't know if it's still profitable after selling the NO shares.

predicted NO

@Heliscone No, you got it backwards. I bait people to buy YES. It should be obvious to you that a fully committed NO, since I own most of the shares, it would be a huge loss for me to sell them. It's kind of funny that there are still people who buy YES

@Lavander Sounds like something someone trying to bait me into buying NO would say 🧐🤔

@Lavander Oops, I guess I didn't think that through well.

predicted YES

@Lavander I made a market based around this, where the baiting is potentially more nuanced, though I'm not so sure yet.

predicted NO

@Heliscone yeah, you can safely bet 400 on NO now, it's too small, not enough for me to sell my position. I can't do it myself because i have no liquidity to do it lol