Last man sitting's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -5.18
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Last man sitting bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
50%
60%
- Will anyone profit by at least M$1,000,000 on a single market by the end of 2023?NOṀ40
- Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' (2023) gross more than $400 million domestically before 2024?YESṀ30
- Will the BBC presenter accused of paying a teen for sexually explicit photos be named in the press within a week?YESṀ30
70%
80%
90%