Here's substack notes, it seems like a twitter clone:
https://on.substack.com/p/introducing-notes
This market resolves YES, if, after Substack Notes is launched:
Twitter DAU's decline by at least 10%
Substack Notes' DAU's are at least as high as the absolute number of users represented by a 10% decline in Twitter's DAU's
In the event DAU stats are not available, any reasonable proxy thereof (MAU's for instance) will be used instead.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ35 | |
| 2 | Ṁ20 | |
| 3 | Ṁ16 | |
| 4 | Ṁ15 | |
| 5 | Ṁ11 |
Substack was previously free-speech-coded, not sure if that's the case. So is Twitter, but I think less so.
It's kind of like, using Twitter is what you do because it's an existing platform, it's seen as legitimate to stay on there for now, maybe to talk about Mastodon a bit if you're in the subculture that cares about moving to Mastodon.
Using Substack is perhaps more seen as an endorsement of "free speech platforms" like Substack.
So for a significant chunk of the population, they won't want to be seen using Substack Notes, I feel.
Many people who aren't in that population will still know this, and it will give them pause, I think.
That's not even considering the considerable difficulty in breaching the network effect moat of large social media platforms like Twitter.