Not 100% sure about what these terms cash out to, but will Balaji actually enter this bet with anyone?

https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1636797265317867520

This resolves entirely on whether he publicly credibly seems to have agreed to this bet. It doesn't matter whether he later reneges on it, or disputes the original terms after the fact, or resolves it honestly. It just needs to be clear that he and at least one counterparty have made an agreement substantially similar to the terms of this bet.