Simon Carless runs the Steam Hype chart* and is one of the most closely watched metrics and leading indicators of a game's success on Steam. He aggregates a bunch of publicly visible metrics like forum chatter, followers, position in top wishlist chart, and various other factors, then combines them into a single score. He then combines this with weekly analysis in his newsletter to see how closely leading indicators predict launch day success.

(If you enjoy manifold markets, and also enjoy video games, you probably would be a fan of GameDiscover.co, FYI)

So what will Defender's Quest 2's total Steam Hype Chart score be on may 1, 2023?

https://plus.gamediscover.co/hype/

The Hype Chart is only available to those who have a subscription, but I'm sure Simon won't mind if I post what my stats are once a week or so.

Here's an example (this is the all time chart list of currently unreleased upcoming games):

And here it is for the last 7 days worth of games:

This market resolves to whatever the Steam Hype Chart score for Defender's Quest 2 is on May 1, 2023.

*I helped build it back in the day!