Will Meta's VR gamble be seen as a good decision at the end of 2023?
Dec 31

Meta is all in on VR and the stock price is taking a big hit. Some claim Zuckerberg is a genius who has it all figured out, some say he is just pissing money away.

At the end of 2023 will the gamble be viewed as a good decision?

I will resolve based on a combination of factors including but not limited to how many users the VR platform has, Meta's market cap vs. ATH and SP500, general sentiment, and possibly some polls here or from my twitter account.

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chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonbought Ṁ50 of YES

Meta's stock price is up 140% YTD and they've just released a new VR headset

VR seems weird to me, but stockholders seem to like it....?

@LachlanMunro that's a large stock price increase, to what extent do you think that is evidence of VR paying off for them? I admit it confuses me.


LachlanMunro avatar
Lachlan Munropredicts NO

@chrisjbillington I am also confused. The stock price going up seems unrelated to VR stuff, and I think most of their success will be due to the weird celebrity AI things. I think I will need to do a deep dive to resolve this when it's time.

RobertCousineau avatar
Robert Cousineaubought Ṁ75 of YES

@LachlanMunro given their level of investment in the metaverse, to try and say stockholders are ignoring the metaverse portion and that explains the crazy stock growth this year seems odd to me.

LachlanMunro avatar
Lachlan Munropredicts NO

@RobertCousineau yeah that's fair, I actually forgot about the weird podcast episode thing

ShadowyZephyr avatar

I think the Metaverse will fade into irrelevancy for a while. It's a good idea, but the tech isn't really powerful enough for it yet, and I expect a future iteration maybe in like 5-10 years to have more success. However, the Metaverse is only a small part of the VR ecosystem. Meta has sold 20 million Quest headsets, and their stock price is almost back to its peak (even though they are having some user retention issues). I'd put this at ~30%.

ShadowyZephyr avatar

When Apple is entering a new product domain, you know it's probably going to be something big.


EMcNeill avatar
E McNeill

Is this about whether you think it was a good decision, or whether you estimate that people in general think it was a good decision? I.e. if I made an argument in December 2023 that convinced you that Meta was right, but most people still disagreed, how would this market resolve?

LachlanMunro avatar
Lachlan Munropredicts NO

@EMcNeill resolves to my opinion ultimately, but I will consider mostly objective inputs (stock price etc.). If they are no longer working on a vr platform I will consider it a bad decision even if they do something new and recover. If it's truly ambiguous I may resolve NA..

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billington

@LachlanMunro what's your thinking currently?

ManifoldDream avatar

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