I created this market last year to see if any of the smaller market teams that either roared or sneaked into the playoffs won the whole thing. I'll be following this again, so I wanted to share.
Market will resolve based on the estimated team payroll reported by USA Today at the start of the 2024 season, not inclusive of trades, waiver acquisitions, or any other signings during the regular season.
Notes below reflect records prior to start of games 8/31/2024:
Notable high-payroll teams currently on the playoff bubble or near elimination:
New York Mets (#1 in team payroll) - 8 games behind (GB) division lead, 3 GB wild card
Toronto Blue Jays (#7 in team payroll) - 14 GB division lead, 8.5 GB wild card
Atlanta Braves (#8 in team payroll) - 5 GB division lead, current 3rd NL wild card
Chicago Cubs (#9 in team payroll) - 10 GB division lead, 5 GB wild card
San Francisco Giants (#10 in team payroll) - 13.5 GB division lead, 6.5 GB wild card
Notable low-payroll teams currently in the playoff hunt:
Minnesota Twins (#20 in team payroll) - 3.5 GB division lead, current 3rd AL wild card
Kansas City Royals (#21 in team payroll) - 2.5 GB division lead, current 2nd AL wild card
Milwaukee Brewers (#23 in team payroll) - current NL Central division leader
Baltimore Orioles (#27 in team payroll) - 1.5 GB division lead, current 1st AL wild card
Cleveland Guardians (#28 in team payroll) - current AL Central division leader
Market will resolve YES for any team ranked #16 or below in the reference link winning the 2024 World Series.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2024/04/03/mlb-team-payrolls-2024-highest-lowest-mets/73139425007/
1,000
3.00Phillies have been eliminated. While the Royals are down 2-1, they’re not out yet. The Tigers and Guardians will send at least one from the lower half through to the ALCS, so the 20% tracks to where we stand now with 1-2 out of 7 teams remaining will be present in the league championship series..es.
An update to feature the four division series:
U denotes upper half
L denotes lower half
Yankees(U) vs Royals(L)
Tigers(L) vs Guardians(L)
Phillies(U) vs Mets(U)
Dodgers(U) vs Padres(U)
Two upper half teams and one lower half team guaranteed to be eliminated. There’s at least one lower half team guaranteed to make the pennant race, but they’ll be from the AL. It’s currently 50-50 that either one or two lower half teams make it to the LCS.
Final list for MLB playoffs:
1) New York Mets
2) New York Yankees
3) Los Angeles Dodgers
4) Philadelphia Phillies
5) Houston Astros
8) Atlanta Braves
14) San Diego Padres
21) Kansas City Royals
23) Milwaukee Brewers
24) Detroit Tigers
27) Baltimore Orioles
28) Cleveland Guardians
Seven teams from the top half, five teams from the bottom half.
With the Orioles and Royals in a series, one bottom half team is guaranteed to andvance, annd one is guaranteed elimination.
With the Braves and Padres in a series, it is the same situation with one top half team guaranteed both advancement and elimination.
Mets/Brewers and Tigers/Astros is a mix.
Following the wild card series, the spread will be 4-6 top half, and 2-4 bottom half.
Odds for Division Series:
4 top half teams, 4 bottom half teams - 25%
6 top half teams, 2 bottom half teams - 25%
5 top half teams, 3 bottom half teams - 50%
Since there is one month left in the regular season, I figured I'd comment with an "if the season ended today" update before I go off and do Sunday stuff to keep busy.
Currently, here's how the playoffs would look:
AL East Champion: Yankees (#2 in payroll)
AL Central Champion: Guardians (#28 in payroll)
AL West Champion: Astros (#5 in payroll)
AL Wild Card: Orioles (#27 in payroll)
AL Wild Card: Royals (#21 in payroll)
AL Wild Card: Twins (#20 in payroll)
NL East Champion: Phillies (#4 in payroll)
NL Central Champion: Brewers (#23 in payroll)
NL West Champion: Dodgers (#3 in payroll, somehow)
NL Wild Card: Diamondbacks (#17 in payroll)
NL Wild Card: Padres (#14 in payroll)
NL Wild Card: Braves (#8 in payroll)
Mean position: #14
# of teams in upper half: 6
# of teams in lower half: 6
Mean position of teams in upper half: 6
Mean position of teams in lower half: 23
If you told me at the start of the season that we would potentially have three teams from the AL Central in the 2024 postseason, I'd have to call bullshit. But anyway, I'll update this in a month, once we have the postseason teams confirmed.
Reference to 2023 market:
https://manifold.markets/LBeesley/will-the-mlb-world-series-winner-in?r=TEJlZXNsZXk