Self-explanatory. See April market - will post in the comments shortly. I will not participate in this market.
Update 2025-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * Games scheduled during May but postponed to June or later due to weather will not count towards resolution.
Games starting on the last day of May that run past midnight into the next month will count towards resolution.
If two or more teams tie for the most wins, only the "two or more teams tied" option will resolve to YES. All individual team options will resolve to NO in this scenario.
Update 2025-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has commented they will resolve to the Tigers 'tonight' if a specific game (Tigers vs Royals) finishes. This statement was made in the context of other recent game results.
If 'tonight' refers to a date significantly before the market's scheduled resolution at the end of May 2025 (context from a previous update suggests 'tonight' could be around April 30, 2025), this would change the resolution criteria.
In such a case, the market could resolve based on that specific game's outcome and much earlier than the end of May, instead of being based on the team with the most wins by the end of May.
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Resolving for the Tigers! They cannot be caught tomorrow. See you all at the All-Star Break.
https://manifold.markets/LBeesley/which-mlb-team-will-have-the-most-w?r=TEJlZXNsZXk
I believe that all outcomes other than Phillies, Tigers and Tie are mathematically eliminated (haven't checked all the 34 win teams for double headers).
Tigers 37, Phillies 35. Tigers have two games against the Royals, Phillies have four games, two athletics and two pirates.
@JTBooth Phillies have those two extra games today - doubleheader. Will say a lot about the outcome here. Tough opponent (Braves) so it looks like a bit better than 25% chance they go into the weekend tied with Detroit. ~50% they go into Friday 1 behind Detroit.
Their other two games on Friday 5/30 and Saturday 5/31 are home against Milwaukee.
@Chrisjohn turns out we have a 37-36 split coming into today. Given all four games operate independently of one another, there are 16 possible outcomes, 11 of which result in the Tigers winning this market, 4 result in a tie, and only one where the Phillies can win, given all four games are played as scheduled. The current percentages are pretty close to the raw numbers.
I’d argue the Tigers have the tougher path playing two in Kansas City, and the Phillies hosting the Brew Crew for two is marginally easier. So maybe the Phillies outcome is just a bit higher than the raw 6.3% probability.
@LBeesley I agree the market looks right, for right now. I held on to 5% Phillies based on hopes for some 1/(2^4) magic. The games are not coinflips - maybe more like .6 and .4 in there - but that’s close enough.
A sweep yesterday would have had them on equal footing going into the weekend. But I knew the Braves would be tough and alas it was not to be.
We've officially reached one third of the way through the MLB season, so with less than a week left in the month, here is where the top teams stand:
Phillies - 34 wins, 5 games remaining in May (3 vs ATL, 2 vs MIL)
Tigers - 34 wins, 5 games remaining in May (3 vs SF, 2 @ KC)
Four teams tied with 32 wins:
Yankees, 5 games remaining (3 @ LAA, 2 @ LAD)
Cubs, 5 games remaining (3 vs COL, 2 v CIN)
Dodgers, 5 games remaining (3 @ CLE, 2 vs NYY)
Mets, 5 games remaining (3 vs CHW, 2 vs COL)
Continuing the exceptions/items from the April market:
- Games scheduled during the month of May that are postponed to June or later due to inclement weather will not count towards resolution.
- Games that begin on the last day of the month which run past midnight into the next month will count towards resolution of May games.
- If two teams tie, only the "two or more teams tied" option will resolve to YES. All individual team options on this market are established under the assumption that that team, and only that team, will win for the month.